Why are there more variables in the power battery industry? Calculate the account behind

  Recently, I have carefully collected some information about batteries and related report research, and discussed some aspects of China's battery industry. In fact, through these materials, we can understand why there are so many variables in the battery industry.

We will not discuss more things in 2015. The core is still the whole development direction. According to Mr. Mo and some publicly released information, let us look at it:

Proportion

In 2015, the battery in the direction of passenger cars only accounted for 27%, while the pure electric bus + pure electric vehicles accounted for 70% of the battery consumption.

2. Money

The subsidy for passenger cars is calculated by car. The national supplement is 3.15~5.4 W. The money is basically equivalent to the output value of the battery:

Pure electric (BEV) passenger car 13.7W × 5 W = 6.8 billion

Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) passenger car 6.3W × 3.15W = 2 billion

Therefore, we can understand the land supplement as follow-up maintenance and certain profits, and bear some reserve funds of 8 years / 150,000 kilometers.

However, pure bus, pure electric special vehicle, the output value of 26 billion, who will come to the bottom? The bus subsidy policy, the national supplement is estimated to be 40 billion+ according to 40W+:

BEV bus 34.2 billion

PHEV bus 6 billion

Special car 6.2 billion

I didn't care about the bus when I was doing the passenger car. I really saw the bus. You found that the battery factory relied on commercial vehicles to eat.

3. The proportion of the technical direction

Now emphasis on technology, but also emphasizes productivity, there are two reasons: too many LFP, too much used on passenger cars.

The ternary battery can't be used on the bus, or it can be used for one year's time to change the 70% capacity of the domestic battery industry. Now, in addition to the safety technical conditions of the bus, it depends on the safety level of the battery itself to determine the follow-up situation.

It seems that everyone is making money. In fact, the persistence of development is doubtful. It is the time when the tide retreats, and the car companies are falsifying on it. This matter is not easy to explain.

4. The fighting power of the supply chain

As you can imagine, due to the above situation, most battery companies are still facing buses, special vehicles, and even a good logistics vehicle for everyone. This is not so important in the face of the requirements of passenger car companies.

The data in the above picture is different from the picture below. I will verify it through detailed data and make a source data inference. I hope that I can deepen the mining of Chinese data in order to obtain more accurate information.

The bus is unsustainable and needs to be transferred to the passenger car. Legend has it that this year's situation is 40 billion subsidies. We can calculate the proportion based on the sales in the first 10 months.

We will wait and see, study this form, and wait for the subsidy rules to come out soon.

5. Capacity

With 8G capacity, we can compare the capacity forecasts of different companies together. This is the forecast in the July 2016 report:

Let’s take a look at the latest report below. The production capacity has been greatly increased. (Note: There are several recent investments, not here):

The goal of 8GWh is actually an incentive policy to consider with foreign battery companies. 1Gwh=200 million US dollars, 8Gwh will get 1.6 billion US dollars.

summary:

In the field of new energy and batteries, the first thing is to calculate the data according to the data, the sporadic progress of technology, if there is no systematic progress, they are taking money to gamble.

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