The photovoltaic industry's internal and external patterns need to be changed

Last year, the output of solar photovoltaic modules in China reached 4,100 megawatts, ranking first in the world, while domestic installed power generation capacity was only 350 megawatts, and the dependence on foreign markets was over 95%. This is the information that the reporter learned from the 2nd China (Wuxi) New Energy Conference recently held in Wuxi. “But the recent signal from the European market shows that the good days for this kind of 'flowering on the wall' are already running out.” Shi Zhengrong, president of Wuxi Suntech Solar, told reporters that due to delays in the effective start-up of the domestic market, it has directly affected our country. The sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry also cannot enable the rapid progress of the process of replacing the traditional fossil energy with new energy.

12345, it is difficult to play "big tiger"

As the installation cost of photovoltaic power generation is reduced significantly, in July this year, Germany reduced the government subsidy for photovoltaic power generation tariff by 15%, and in October it will cut 3%, and it will continue to reduce 10% next year. France has already substantially lowered its PV tariff subsidy before Germany. Another major photovoltaic power producer, Italy, plans to reduce PV subsidy by 20% next year. This caused a great shock in the Chinese photovoltaic industry. Shi Zhengrong said that at present, 70% of domestic photovoltaic companies' markets are in Europe. Once subsidies are cut, the purchase of photovoltaic modules will be greatly reduced, which will greatly affect the export of domestic photovoltaic companies. Many delegates believe that China's PV industry will face an “inflection point”. If we can't accelerate technological innovation, open up overseas emerging markets and start large-scale domestic applications, China's “photovoltaic myth” will be short-lived.

And “outside the market” echoes “raw materials are out.” The reporter was informed that the frontier of solar photovoltaic cells, crystal silicon purification technology, is still controlled by foreign countries. 57% of the raw materials of China's photovoltaic companies come from Europe and the United States, and they can only provide 18%. Therefore, the photovoltaic industry has a "two out" evaluation. Yang Xiaozhong, vice president of Changzhou Trina Solar Energy Co., Ltd., said that apart from the “two”, there are also sayings that “one stroke, three high signs, four sides of the face of the country, and mixed feelings”, that is to say, the photovoltaic industry is emerging as a new place everywhere regardless of conditions. When the industrial projects came, there was a situation where there was no planning and a one-size-fits-all situation. It took a lot of money to buy the same equipment, manufacture the same low-end products, and then engage in low-price competition in foreign markets. The “shrinking” of the European market will inevitably cause a severe reshuffle of the domestic photovoltaic industry. Some companies may even die before they are born.

Promote Breakthrough: Large Buildings

After the “shrinking” of the European and American markets, the move to emerging overseas markets has become the survival choice for many photovoltaic companies. However, whether it can effectively start the domestic market is the plan for the healthy and sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry. Shi Dingyao, the counselor of the State Council and chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that according to the experience of European countries, market cultivation was initiated through government policies. China’s “Renewable Energy Law” also stipulates that power grids will acquire new energy sources by force. However, there is still a big gap from the statutory requirements. The most important issue is that the on-grid tariff policy has not yet been fully effective. implement. Relevant government departments should formulate reasonable electricity prices and corresponding subsidy policies based on reasonable costs as soon as possible. Enterprises can see the long-term return of photovoltaic power generation before they can promote the scale development of photovoltaic power generation.

In terms of starting the private installation market, due to the constraints of housing conditions in China and the high cost of private investment in personal installations, small-scale photovoltaic power plants with single-family single-family houses are still difficult to popularize. Experts suggest that they can begin with the construction of new large-scale residential and public buildings. For example, France will substantially increase the compensation for photovoltaic power generation projects on large-scale commercial rooftops and accelerate the installation of solar power generation facilities.

In Shanghai, the world’s largest single building photovoltaic power integration project has been launched. Hongqiao Station Photovoltaic Power Generation Project is located at the canopy on the both sides of the newly opened Hongqiao Railway Terminal Station. The project has a total investment of 160 million yuan. It has a roof area of ​​61,000 square meters and a total installed capacity of 6,688 kilowatts. The project has installed a total of 23,910 solar panels with an average annual power generation of 6.3 million kWh. The annual power generation capacity can be used by 12,000 households for a year. Shi Dingyao said that large-scale photovoltaic power plants can be built in the western region, and land resources in the east should make full use of the roof resources of large public buildings. Of course, the driving force of the company's installed capacity lies in the benchmarking of electricity prices on the Internet and government subsidies.

New Photovoltaic Technology and New Space

The high cost of photovoltaic power generation is a difficult issue for government subsidies. "The cost is not a problem," said Shi Zhengrong. According to the current technological innovation speed, the installation cost of photovoltaic power generation has dropped from 7 US dollars per watt in 2007 to the current 4 US dollars per watt. From the experience of Germany, its Internet subsidies are Installation costs have decreased and gradually decreased. After an orderly adjustment, some places in Germany have been able to achieve parity, which not only ensures the reasonable return of investors, but also ensures the long-term development of suppliers.

Martin Green, a professor at the University of New South Wales in Australia who is called the “father of solar energy,” said that photovoltaic cells have evolved from the first generation of polysilicon cells to the third generation of new thin-film cells, and the photoelectric conversion efficiency has increased from 14% to 25%. The thin-film battery's conversion efficiency limit will reach 74%, and it is rich in raw materials, non-toxic, stable and durable. Therefore, through continuous technological innovation, the cost of photovoltaic power generation will drop significantly in the short term.

Fortunately, the updated "solar thermal power generation technology" has entered the industry's line of sight and began to practice in the country. In the Sun Valley in Dezhou, Shandong, China's first Fresnel solar thermal power generation project built by the Himin Solar Group has a total installed capacity of 2.5 megawatts and a total investment of nearly 200 million yuan, which will be completed in early 2011. Wang Jie, senior engineer of the Technology Development Department of Huangming Group, told reporters that when compared with photovoltaic power generation, the solar thermal power generation energy storage system can maintain the normal operation of the power station for 2-3 days when the sunlight is in short supply, and it is easy to maintain the stability of the output current. It is also easy to solve grid connection problems, and it has advantages that wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation do not have. And the greater the scale of CSP, the lower the cost and the better. For example, 1 megawatt of solar thermal power generates a price of 2 yuan. If the scale of the power station is 10 megawatts, the cost of a one-time electricity is about 1.5 yuan. If the power station scale is 100 megawatts, the cost of once-power electricity will be reduced to 1.23 yuan. It will be far lower than the current comprehensive cost of photovoltaic power generation.

Compared to the situation where key technologies for photovoltaic power generation are controlled abroad, some of the key technologies for solar thermal power generation are at the same level both domestically and internationally, and some are also ahead of the international level. In October 2009, the “China Solar Thermal Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance” was established. The first batch of members include the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Electrical Engineering, Huang Ming Solar, Baoding Tianwei, Shanghai Jiaotong University and other 30 companies and research institutes. The coalition plans to build a 1,000-megawatt solar thermal power plant in western China during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. In Europe, a bigger idea is being implemented. According to Wang Weiguo, Vice President of Siemens China, a solar thermal power project called “DII” will be a multi-national joint investment of 400 billion euros in the Sahara desert for 10 years to build a super solar thermal power station, which will be able to Provide about 15% of clean power energy.