At the stage of the countdown of the implementation of the fuel consumption integral management method, the four ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the Ministry of Commerce, recently released the “2016 Annual Average Fuel Consumption of Chinese Passenger Vehicles and New Energy Vehicle Integrationâ€.
According to the situation of each individual production enterprise, of the 124 passenger car manufacturers that have been counted, 44 companies have failed to meet the standard, accounting for about one-third of the total vehicle manufacturers. Among the companies failing to meet the standards, the ultra-luxury brands Aston Martin, Ferrari, Maserati, etc. are on the list, including Changan Ford Motor Co., Ltd., Haima Motors (4.020, 0.06, 1.52%), Chery Jaguar Land Rover, and Great Wall. Enterprise list.
Even car companies that have reached the standard at this stage, including many car companies such as Guanzhi, Renault Import Vehicle, Beiqi Foton, etc., have just reached the passing red line. With the tightening of policy requirements in 2018 and 2019, these enterprises want to achieve compliance. It will also bear some pressure.
According to the "Measures for the Parallel Management of the Average Consumption of Fuel Vehicles and New Energy Vehicles for Passenger Vehicles" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in September last year (hereinafter referred to as the "Dual-Point Management Approach"), the average fuel consumption points for car companies starting from April 1 ( CAFC) will be implemented prior to the New Energy Score (NEV) policy, the implementation date of the latter being postponed to January 1, 2019.
As fuel consumption points can be transferred within affiliated companies (such as JAC Volkswagen, Ford Zhongtai), they can use their own new energy vehicle credits or purchase new energy vehicle credits from other companies to meet the requirements. Therefore, from the group level, including SAIC, BAIC and Geely Automobile Group, the overall oil consumption standards are better, but Dongfeng, Changan and other auto groups will continue to have pressure in the future, while focusing on SUV Great Wall Motor (12.490, -0.03, -0.24%). Even if there are new energy points that can lower the fuel consumption standards, they still fail to meet the standards.
In addition to the announcement of fuel consumption points, the four ministries also announced the new energy scores of existing companies. From the data point of view, of the 124 passenger car manufacturers, 34 have new energy points of 0. Most of them are joint venture car companies, including SAIC Volkswagen, Changan Mazda, FAW Toyota, Volvo, and Toyota China. According to the “double-point management approachâ€, after the official launch of the new energy credit management measures in 2019, these companies can only earn points through their own sales of new energy vehicles, or they must purchase through the market, otherwise it may affect the future of their traditional fuel vehicles. admission to market.
In 2016, its own brand became a big winner in new energy vehicles. Among them, BYD (66.000, -0.85, -1.27%) received 141,220 points, ranking first, followed by Beijing Automobile and Geely Automobile. Although the new energy credit management method needs to be officially implemented in 2019, there are already some estimates and forecasts for the transaction prices of new energy points on the market. The industry generally believes that the market price of new energy points per minute is about 5,000 yuan. According to this calculation, only one point transaction will be used, and BYD's 2016 points alone can replace more than $700 million in revenue.
According to Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Association of Travel Unions, with the deepening of the double-integration policy and the rapid increase in fuel consumption standards, the completion of fuel consumption points and the trading of new energy vehicle points will become a hot spot in the industry.
According to the policy requirements, from 2019 to 2020, the proportion of new energy vehicles in vehicle sales vehicles will be 10% and 12%, respectively. Assume that a company sells 1 million vehicles in 2019. According to the above policy requirements, it must complete 100,000 points of new energy vehicles in 2019, with 4.4 points for each electric vehicle (calculated as 300 km of battery life) and each plugged in. The number of hybrid vehicles is 2 points. In 2019, there must be sold 22,700 pure electric vehicles or 50,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles to achieve the target.
In order to achieve this standard, joint venture cases in the new energy field emerge in an endless stream, such as Ford and Zotye hand in hand, Great Wall and BMW marry, but in the short term to achieve the above indicators, is not easy. For some auto makers whose original sales volume and profitability are not strong, there is no group background, and there is no joint venture or cooperation partner who can share the fuel consumption points and deliver new energy points, the future production capacity will be limited by policies.
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